The State of Real Estate in 2009

The state of real estate in 2009 is pretty interesting. There are so many things happening, from an overhang of inventory and low rates to a fringe of distressed property sales and new players in the lending game.

Things are different. Community banks now offer competitive loan products and good old FHA financing is now viewed as downright attractive. Non-purchase lending activity has skyrocketed, Appraisers have new stricter appraisal forms and non-profit housing organizations are now knee-deep in redevelopment of REO properties.

With all of these changes opportunities abound at the extremes of the market, which today offer the most inventory. If you take a look at an On Market Snapshot statewide of single family homes from April 2009 and compare it to April of 2005, the low-end (under $300K) and the high-end (over $1M) have the largest percentage increases of inventory, see chart below. 

Realistically, opportunities are there for anyone with an actual need for a home. What will the future hold? Quite simply - a majority of homeowners with very low interest rates unable to use their homes as no fee ATM machines or liquidate. What exactly will that market look like? I'll have to think about that.

 

A New Take on an Old Super Bowl Ad - Wassup 2008

For a good laugh, watch this commercial. Many of you may remember the original ad from the Super Bowl, 8 years ago. For some reason I find it comforting to laugh about what we've been through this year. Hopefully you'll enjoy this video too, no matter which candidate you voted for this past week!

Town Meeting and The Board of Selectmen

Town Meeting is this Saturday March 27th 2008 and like every year there are a lot of issues on the Town Warrant to be addressed. The usual political fair of overrides, health care cost increases and the need for new town vehicles have been augmented this year with a couple of interesting ideas: a wind energy system bylaw and a museum bylaw. Both are fairly new proposals and for better or for worse Harvard has always been skilled at studying new ideas until quite frankly they become old ideas. So we'll see next week what happens!

We'll also be having Town Election is this Tuesday April 1st 2008. This year voters will be electing a myriad of volunteers including positions in two key/critical offices: three positions on the Board of Selectmen and two positions on the School Committee. The good news is that we have mostly capable candidates and a town full of informed voters. Check out The Harvard Hillside, The Harvard Press, and The Harvard Post for candidate profiles. Why do we have three papers you ask? Boy do I wish I knew - print advertising isn't exactly free!

The Spring Market - And They're Off!!!

Well it's March - officially my least favorite month of the year. Lot's of people say February but for me March is a total kick in the teeth and by this time every year I just can't wait for spring any longer!

So what's happening with the spring market? Well so far in Q1, the weather, the headlines and the lenders have not been our friend. Location, price and condition in Q2 will continue to be key and in some markets high or even low inventory levels will also be a factor.

What I do know for sure is that buyers don't have as much money available to them today as they did before. So secure your financing up front and work with a knowledgeable Realtor in your market that really listens carefully to what you are trying to accomplish and does their research.

Training for Triathlons in Harvard

One of the best features of the Harvard landscape is its varied topography. Whether running, biking, or just plain walking around you'll find an endless number of routes to get your heart rate up whilst enjoying the lovely country scenery.

Harvard is my favorite place to train for triathlons. Running early in the morning from the center of town straight "up" Old Littleton Road across Pinnacle over Oak Hill, to Slough and then down Bolton Rd is one of my standbys. I also can't resist heading out over Depot Rd to Prospect Hill to Madigan to Underpin and Lover's Lane. Both of these routes offer rolling hills and incredible country views. If I want a mental challenge I head out Littleton Rd - a straight shot for as many miles as I can bear or sometimes I head to the town track for some tempo work.

Cycling in Harvard is also a great challenge. On the weekends the town common transforms into a rest stop for numerous cyclists on their way to crank out 30-50 mile rides. I trace a couple routes taking me from Harvard to Bolton to Littleton and back. One thing on all of these rides is the same, its uphill all the way home!

Swimming is the last leg of my training and honestly, I just love swimming at Walden Pond in Concord. I typically see a number of people swimming across the pond and back while I'm out there and safety in numbers while swimming is my strategy. If I found others interested I would definitely swim at the Bare Hill Pond in Harvard, that way I wouldn't have to pay for parking!

Tug of War - Fair Market Value?

I just published a pretty comprehensive look at the town of Harvard's real estate market in two market reports on HarvardRealty.com. I think my blog readers and property sleuths will find these reports very helpful in level setting the Harvard market for 2008.

As you are well aware, it has become a tug of war between buyers and sellers to identify the fair market values of properties. To keep the market moving we need actual sellers. What do I mean by "actual sellers"? Actual sellers are property owners who want to sell their properties within a reasonable timeframe and are realistic about today's fair market value of their property based on recent comparative market statistics and projected market conditions.

Last year the average original list price for single family homes in Harvard was $689,524 and the average sale price was $590,503. That's a $99,021 difference or a 14% price reduction in a market where price was just about everything. To be fair I looked at a neighboring market to see what kind of pricing gap they faced. So let's take Bolton - Bolton's average original list price was $670,832 and their average sale price was $621,836 which is a 7% price reduction, a difference of $48,996.

In general, it is my opinion that a 14% tug of war on value in Harvard is pretty painful for both buyers and sellers. No one wants to put an offer in on a property that is $100,000 out of their price range and no one wants to see an offer that is $100,000 less than what their asking. The truth of the matter is that fair market value is much easier to deal with for everyone when it is just that - fair.

The Correction - Prices of Homes in Harvard

Some may find the 2007 sales results for the town of Harvard surprising even though a market correction has been widely predicted by experts for quite some time. As you can see at left sale prices are not climbing exponentially like they were in the early part of the decade.

While Harvard experienced a 36.1% median sales price increase from 2002 - 2004 it recently saw a 8.6% median price decline from 2005 - 2007. In 2007 alone the median price for a single family home in Harvard declined by 6.8% to $550,000 down from $590,000 in 2006.

Pricing, property condition, and inventory levels will continue to pose a challenge for both buyers and sellers laboring through this market correction in 2008. Remember I'm here to help!So if you do want to make a move give me a call and I'd be happy to help you make the best real estate decisions.

For more detailed market information, or to ask a question call me at 978-456-3855 or email me at: marysprague@harvardrealty.com.

The Value of Education - 2007 MCAS Results

Whether relocating from out of state or making a move from school district to school district MCAS is one benchmark used to compare communities in Massachusetts and these rankings are one of many factors to consider when evaluating school districts.

It is important to note that Harvard Elementary and Bromfield (the town's public high school) typically perform very well on the MCAS standardized test and generally rank between 1st and 15th in the state depending on the year and the grade level. Boston.com has compiled a great section of their Website devoted to MCAS. Check out our district's 2007 10th grade ranking.

Congratulations to the teachers, children, teens, parents, and families that all contribute to our continued MCAS success!

Harvard Farmer's Market

Three Cheers for the new Harvard Farmer's Market! Open Saturday mornings 9:00-12:00, Labor Day Weekend through October. The event takes place rain or shine in front of the Elementary School on Route 111 and sells mainly local produce, eggs, meats, baked goods, flowers, and herbs. This is a great way to support local farmers and spend time with members of the community! Did I mention there is music?! It's a great cause, just be careful parking, this attraction draws quite a crowd!

What's a Seller To Do?

If you have read recent headlines you would know one thing for sure, that credit right now is TIGHT. The financial markets have been rocked by investment fallout due to what analysts like to categorize as "sub-prime lending" in the real estate market. What had recently become America's new favorite investment is now turning into many Americans biggest nightmare.

The unfortunate truth of the matter is that sub-prime lending is only one part of this difficult story. It seems that a majority of qualified homeowners also took advantage of the "easy money" financing and refinancing days and are now finding themselves with zero equity or even worse upside down. It turns out that borrowing equity to remodel a kitchen, pay a college tuition, consolidate other debt, or worse by a second home, might not have been the best idea.

What does all of this mean for sellers in towns like Harvard? Back to basics really - location, price, and condition. Borrowers today see the market declining which means that they won't be able to refinance and borrow from their equity anytime soon. Therefore, basic affordability and condition is paramount. Where once a borrower could refinance to update a kitchen, a bath, or install a new furnace, they now need to use their own cash. Since utilizing credit/equity is no longer possible, pricing is everything. So buff up that 1970's Colonial and price it as best you can, and remember, top dollar days where a home sale could augment your retirement is now "so 2005".

Where's My Move Up Home Index?

I really look forward to reading the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Real Estate Indeces. They can be a fascinating snapshot of the market as it goes up and even as it comes down. I'm especially interested in the index known as the "Move Up Home Index" highlighting our little town of Harvard, zip code 01451, as one of their selected zip codes for monitoring mid-career professionals and executives.

During the real estate hay-day this index was published quite frequently, especially while values were heading upward. Now that values are heading downward, I haven't seen the Index since December of 2006.

With the absence of the WSJ Index, I will share with you my own data. In December of 2006 the YTD median sales price for Harvard was $597,500. As of June 15, 2007 the YTD median sales price is $569,900 - a 4.75% drop over six months. We shall see what September brings...

A List of Local Restaurants

The next question after "Where do we shop?" is usually, "Are there local restaurants?" and the answer is yes. I could bore you with a long list of fast food franchises within 20-minutes, but instead here are some of the local restaurants (those starred are my favorites).

Acton
The Acton Jazz Cafe
Atlantic Sea Grille
Savoury Lane*
Scupperjacks
O'Naturals

Ayer
Nashoba Club Restaurant*
Tiny's Restaurant

Bolton
Nashoba Winery

Concord
Colonial Inn
Pappa Razzi
Quarterdeck Seafood
Vincenzo's*
Walden Grille

Groton
Gibbet Hill Grill*
Filho's Cucina*
Herb Lyceum

Harvard
Fruitlands Museum
Sorrento's Pizzeria*

Littleton
Ken's American Cafe
Yangtzee River

Marlborough
Firefly's BBQ

Stow
Nancy's Airfield Cafe*
Quarterdeck Seafood

Westford
Bamboo*
Kimball Farms* (Ice Cream)
The Outlook (at Nashoba Valley Ski Area)

Where Do People Shop?

"Where do people shop?" is a question fielded daily in our office and the quick answer to that question is most area shopping is a 15-minute drive from Harvard.

If you head east to Acton on route 111 you will find places like Starbucks, Roche Brothers, CVS, TJ Maxx Home Goods, and KMart. Or if you head east to Acton on route 2A/119 you will find Donelan's, Trader Joe's, Pier One, Ann Taylor, Chico's, Eastern Moutain Sports, and just about every bank in Massachusetts including: Citizen's, Bank of America, Sovereign, and Middlesex Savings.

Taking route 2 west to Leominster you will find places like Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, Bed Bath & Beyond, Kohl's, Home Depot, and Circuit City. You will also find grocers like Hannaford's and Market Basket.

Heading north to Ayer on route 2A you will find a Hannaford's or north to Groton on 119/225 you will find a Shaw's. Alternatively, heading south to Marlborough on route 495 brings you to the Solomon Pond Mall, with many of the usual mall stores along with a Best Buy, DSW, and Barnes & Noble. You will also find the sometimes controversial Walmart.

If you are thinking to yourself, "But what about the farm stands and country stores?" well, we have those too! Some of my favorites are: Westward Orchards on route 111 in Harvard, Carlson Orchards on Oak Hill Rd in Harvard, Willard's Farm Stand on route 110 in Harvard, Bolton Orchards on route 117 in Bolton, Great Brook Farms on route 117 in Bolton, and Idylwilde Farms on Central St. in Acton.

So rest assured, there is shopping around. It is all just a 15-minute car ride away!

The Advent of Zillow - Valuation is Not Just a Formula

So what does Zillow™ have that real estate agents like myself don't have other than than two founders from Expedia.com and a snappy company name with products like Zestimator™ and Make Me Move™? Well, let's see:

I just performed a value search on a property in Harvard and Zillow came up with a Zestimate™ value of between $403,886 - $551,977, or a range of almost $150,000. In fairness, it is probably just a formula utilizing public record sales data crunched with overall market data.

Just to be sure, I performed a second value search on a property in Shirley and the Zestimate™ value of between $295,482 - $386,400, or a range of just over $90,000. From my perspective a value estimate plus or minus 13-15% is not really all that helpful to consumers. Sure you can spend hours customizing your valuation with things you know about your house, but honestly these tools can never provide you with a truly accurate assessment of value that a trusted professional real estate agent can.

Zillow is great because you can see exactly what your neighbors paid for their houses or what their tax assessments are. However, when you are looking to determine a real value for your property your best bet is to work with a professional because assessments of value require experience.

Of course real estate professionals take into consideration the regular Zillow-type facts like recent sales and assessments, but they also go further to consider things like location, condition, age, quality of construction, road noise, useable land area, particular improvements, selling timeframe, current market trends, abutting property information, etc. A professional will consider all of the details with you and provide you with a much closer range and detailed market data to support that range. Like pricing artwork, you really want someone who knows the market and understands what you are selling. Zillow is a tool, but a trusted agent is the real asset.

Commuting to Work from Harvard

"This place is really beautiful, but how will I get to work from here?" We may seem like we are way out in the sticks, but Harvard is about 38 miles northwest of downtown Boston at the intersection of Routes 2 and 495, making us pretty well connected for the majority of commuters. A commute in the car downtown can be over an hour, but Harvard is certainly closer to places like Burlington, Marlborough, Maynard, Lexington, and Waltham.

Directions by car from the center of Harvard to The Prudential Center downtown today are estimated at 54 minutes. Directions from Harvard to Kendall Square are estimated at about 42 minutes. I would add 15 to 20 minutes to account for traffic, unless you commute during off hours.

Another viable option is the commuter rail. Harvard is close to the Fitchburg/South Acton Line and you can take the train from a few different stations nearby. The closest stations to Harvard are the Ayer, Littleton, and South Acton. Parking at the stations can be a little tricky so you should call each municipality and find out parking availability for non-residents. The MBTA estimates 1 hour and 8 minutes from the Littleton Station to the Prudential Center via North Station and 55 minutes from Littleton to Kendall/MIT via Porter Square.

I often suggest that folks interested in in the move west try the commute in order to get a sense of what it is actually like. I can certainly describe the traffic at the Fresh Pond Rotary, but one should really experience this themselves. ;-) As an aside, one tool that I use frequently to check traffic all over the region is SmarTraveler or their automated phone information system at (617) 374-1234. I have called this number countless times when I'm trying to figure out the best route to the Cape on a friday night!

What Devens Means to Harvard

"What is happening to Devens?" is a question heard in our office frequently. The most recent article in the Globe sums it all up: "The Future For Devens is Clouded" and for people considering a move to Harvard, the Devens cloud can be a little unsettling.

So first, what is Devens? Devens is what remains of "Fort Devens" an Army training facility built during World War I to train more than 100,000 Army soldiers. The facility was located on more than 5000 acres of land purchased from 112 land owners in the towns of Ayer, Harvard, Lancaster and Shirley. Over the years this facility had been expanded and activated as necessary during wars and military actions.

In 1995, under the national Base Realignment And Closing Act Fort Devens was closed and the State appointed The Massachusetts Government Land Bank (now known as MassDevelopment) to oversee redevelopment efforts. In 1996, MassDevelopment took title of the land with the power to sell and lease the property. Since that time commercial, residential, recreational, and municipal redevelopment has taken place.

This year, after two years of deliberation and upwards of 70 public meetings, the Devens Disposition Executive Board (DDEB) proposed "Scenario 2B". This scenario would apportion some lands back to the surrounding towns and incorporate "Devens" into a municipality by the year 2010. However, this proposal was voted down by the towns of Ayer and Harvard so it is back to the drawing board for the DDEB. Meanwhile, MassDevelopment continues their development efforts and citizens anxiously await the next proposal.

The good and bad news is that the deadline for a decision on the disposition of Devens is not until the year 2033. One hopes that it does not take 29 years for a consensus, but it is difficult to predict. And if the development in Devens continues over the next three decades and proves to be valuable then the question of, "What is happening to Devens?" will be an even more difficult subject for the towns of Ayer, Harvard, Lancaster, and Shirley to agree upon.

I wonder how many public meetings will have taken place by the year 2033?.

Halloween Night - On The Common

Harvard residents enjoy quite a spectacle each year on Halloween night. Children trick-or-treat all over town and a large number of hearty souls venture to the town center where from 5 to 8 pm gracious homeowners, the fire department, and our own office open up the doors for hundreds of trick-or-treaters.

It is a community event like no other, where kids of all ages tromp through the center of town for the opportunity to see their friends and classmates in costume. Even parents get into the act with all kinds of hilarious get-ups.

We look forward to this community event each and every year. It gives us a chance to see the new residents that we have relocated to Harvard and connect with people that have lived in town for years.

We give away hot dogs, popcorn, apple cider from Carlson Orchards, donuts from Dunkin' Donuts, and more. Next year we expect we'll need more than 1000 hot dogs! One suggestion - arrive early, or you'll have to wait in line for the popcorn!

The State of Real Estate in Late 2006

Well, it has been a tough year for real estate. The last three or four years had been huge in the Harvard market and prices rose higher than ever. Now we are experiencing what I would frankly say is a "wicked hangover". But what is next? Honestly, no one is quite sure. The Federal Reserve seems focused on keeping rates right where they are, so will that eventually bring more buyers?

At our office, I watch the historical market data carefully. There is so much information available and it is critical when it comes to pricing. As people say all the time, "everything is cyclical". So where are we in the cycle? We are stalled. Issues of affordability, lack of actual home equity, and uncertainty created by negative press have all stopped buyers in their tracks.

At this point however, I do feel strongly that the spring market will be busy. And what I have seen in 2006 is that price sells. But, what else sells? Location and condition. It is really simple, so be realistic about what you have and play to your strengths. Furthermore, unless you have got a priceless gem be ready for either some aggressive pricing or aggressive negotiating!

The Value of Education- MCAS Ranking

Whether relocating from out of state or making a move from school district to school district, MCAS has become a benchmark with which Buyers compare communities in Massachusetts. For those looking at different communities these rankings are one of many factors to consider when evaluating school districts.

It is important to note that Harvard Elementary and Bromfield (the town's public high school) typically perform very well on the MCAS standardized test and generally rank between 1st and 15th in the state depending on the year and the grade level. Boston.com has compiled a great section of their Website devoted to MCAS. Check out our district's 2006 10th grade ranking.

Congratulations to the teachers, children, teens, parents, and families that all contribute to our continued MCAS success!

A History of Interesting Settlers

The town of Harvard has a history of interesting settlements that are well-documented and somewhat unique. If you have ever looked at a town profile you may have read the following phrase, "...the town has been known for a series of unusual sociological and religious experiments...". The question is, what exactly is one to make of all this? In short, Harvard has always been a place where independent thinkers have settled. It seems that there is a genuine climate of acceptance and tolerance which makes Harvard a really great place! Below is a brief history on what have been called the "unique" settlements. This may provide more insight on the town.

The first documented formal religious community in Harvard were the self-sufficient and industrious Shakers. At their peak, in the late 1790's there were around 200 members living on hundreds, maybe even a thousand acres covering the northeast corner of Harvard. Their settlement ended in 1917 but there are in fact a few remaining Shaker properties privately held, along with public conservation lands & trails throughout a wonderful neighborhood known as Shaker Hills and even a Public Golf Course.

The next settlement sprouted near the Nashua River in 1843. The group was a small commune of transcendental intellectuals who formed to "elevate the spirit and pursue wisdom". However, the group did not survive their first winter. Critics felt that their strategy to operate with total self-sufficiency and their vegetarianism contributed greatly to their downfall. Interestingly, on this land now operates a seasonal museum called Fruitlands that preserves both the local Shaker and Transcendental artifacts.

After that, it took over 100 years for the next settlement to take hold in Still River, not far from Fruitlands. In 1958; St. Benedict's Center, Slaves of the Immaculate Heart of Mary arrived. This settlement of conservative Catholics came to town from Cambridge, MA after their founder had been excommunicated by the Church. They began to farm in Still River and this monastic/agricultural settlement has been there ever since. In 1972, the Church removed censures and by that time the settlement had evolved and the Saint Benedicts Abbey took shape. Both settlements exist their today.

There is more to be learned about these different settlements, much of which is preserved by the Harvard Historical Society, Harvard Conservation Trust, and Fruitlands Museum.